Germany's 2025 Election: Under Siege by Disinformation Campaigns

A Familiar Foe Returns

Russia's meddling in elections is a recurring nightmare. From the US to the EU, and even Germany's own 2021 federal election, the Kremlin's disinformation campaigns have cast a long shadow. Now, as Germany heads to the polls in February 2025, a chillingly familiar pattern is emerging.

Targeting the Center, Boosting the Fringe

This time, the crosshairs are firmly fixed on centrist parties. Experts at the Center for Monitoring, Analysis and Strategy (CeMAS) have observed a surge in disinformation targeting the Greens, the CDU, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz's SPD, along with their leading candidates. Meanwhile, the far-right AfD enjoys a curious immunity, often receiving positive coverage in these fabricated narratives.

Lea Früchwirth from CeMAS notes a distinct pattern: "There are few mentions of the AfD (Alternative for Germany), but these are positive.”

Fake News Attacks on Top Candidates

The tactics are as insidious as they are effective. A video circulating online alleges a mental breakdown and suicide attempt by CDU candidate Friedrich Merz in 2017, "evidence" supported by forged documents and a fictitious psychiatrist. The video, viewed millions of times, conveniently links Merz to the controversial issue of supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

Green Party leaders Robert Habeck and Claudia Roth haven't been spared either. False accusations of a €100 million corruption scandal, involving paintings allegedly smuggled to Ukraine, have been spread through fabricated news articles and videos. The Prussian Cultural Heritage Foundation has confirmed the allegations are entirely baseless.

Unmasking the Disinformation Operations: Storm-1516, Doppelganger, and Matryoshka

These attacks bear the hallmarks of sophisticated Russian disinformation operations like Storm-1516 and Doppelganger, known for their use of AI-generated content, fake news websites, and paid influencers on platforms like X and Telegram.

Doppelganger, sanctioned by the US for election interference, initially focused on mimicking reputable media outlets like the BBC and DW, creating convincing yet entirely false reports. While some fakes are easily spotted, the sheer volume of disinformation is overwhelming, a strategy of "mass rather than class," according to Früchwirth.

Adding to the chaos is Matryoshka, an operation deploying bot armies to flood journalists with fake news tips, both spreading disinformation and hindering fact-checkers.

Suspicions of Russian Support for the AfD and BSW

The consistent pro-AfD slant in these campaigns raises red flags. Leonie Pfaller from NewsGuard notes the frequent positive portrayal of the far-right party and its leader Alice Weidel, aligning with Russia's goals of "spreading uncertainty and polarizing voters."

The AfD's pro-Moscow stance, evident in their calls to lift sanctions against Russia, further fuels suspicions of Kremlin support.

Even Sahra Wagenknecht's Alliance (BSW), with its narrative of a preventable "proxy war" in Ukraine and its advocacy for resuming Russian gas imports, has benefited from Russian propaganda, according to CeMAS.

Beyond Elections: A Long-Term Strategy

Felix Kartte from Stiftung Mercator warns that the immediate threat to the election pales in comparison to Russia's long-term strategy of injecting narratives of government corruption and suppressed free speech into public discourse, themes echoed by far-right parties across Europe.

Germany's Response: Raising Awareness and "Better Policy"

While spreading disinformation by foreign governments remains largely unpunishable in Germany, the government is focusing on public awareness and media literacy initiatives. Collaboration with other states and social media platforms is also underway.

Kartte stresses the need for more than fact-checking. Politicians, he argues, must address the underlying emotional needs of society and "make better policy" to combat the allure of disinformation.