Merz's Gamble: Can a Rightward Shift Secure Victory for Germany's CDU?

A Party Striving for Unity

With a crucial election looming, Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is projecting an image of unwavering unity. Standing ovations and rhythmic applause greet party leader Friedrich Merz at every campaign stop, a carefully orchestrated display of support for the man who could soon become Germany's next chancellor.

A Controversial Pivot

But beneath the surface of unity lies a controversial strategy. Merz, a seasoned lawyer on the cusp of his 70th birthday, has embarked on a taboo-breaking rightward pivot, aligning himself with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) on migration and asylum. This move, while symbolically potent, has sparked outrage and accusations of echoing the dark days of prewar Germany.

Even former Chancellor Angela Merkel, known for her own open-border policies, broke her political silence to condemn Merz's actions as "wrong."

From Open Borders to Migration Fatigue

Germany's political landscape has shifted dramatically in the decade since Merkel's "we can manage this" refugee mantra. Growing migration fatigue, fueled by anxieties about criminal asylum seekers and perceived government mismanagement, has created an opening for a more conservative approach. Merz, campaigning in the AfD heartland of Saxony, aims to capitalize on this sentiment, reshaping the CDU into a party with a stronger law-and-order focus.

Courting the AfD Vote

Acknowledging the AfD's rise as a reflection of mainstream political failures, Merz has urged voters not to "waste" their ballots on the far-right party. He promises new rules to "limit" migration, but remains vague on the specifics, leaving many wondering if his "correction" will include turning back asylum seekers at the border – a key AfD demand.

This calculated ambiguity has drawn criticism from within and outside the CDU. "Many people were very unsettled by that vote," noted Albrecht Pallas, a Saxon MP for the Social Democratic Party (SPD), expressing concerns about the potential erosion of democratic norms.

A Divided Party?

While some CDU supporters see engaging with the AfD as a necessary step to preserve democratic processes, others remain deeply skeptical of Merz's strategy. The rebellion of 12 CDU MPs against the recent migration motion suggests a deeper dissent within the party ranks. "He doesn't have his party completely behind him," observed political scientist Prof Klaus Schubert, adding that Merz has become "trapped" by the migration issue, distracting from the struggling economy.

Shifting the Focus

Aware of this criticism, Merz is attempting to redirect the campaign narrative towards economic issues. With Germany facing stagnant growth, the CDU has unveiled a nine-point action plan focused on tax cuts, deregulation, and increased investment. However, critics argue that these proposals lack detail and funding, particularly compared to the CDU's meticulously crafted plans to dismantle existing welfare reforms.

A High-Risk Gamble

Merz's campaign is a high-stakes gamble. His rightward shift, while potentially appealing to undecided voters, risks alienating centrists and complicating future coalition negotiations. Whether this gamble will pay off remains to be seen. As the election draws closer, Germany watches with bated breath, wondering if Merz's controversial strategy will lead him to the chancellorship or leave the CDU fractured and vulnerable.