Dissecting a Democratic Defeat: Beyond Simple Inflation

The Tightrope of Votes and the Inflationary Pinch

Let's be frank: soaring food prices, up a staggering 22% between January 2021 and November 2024, hit wallets hard. Imagine your $150 grocery bill ballooning to $183. That's a gut punch most families feel. For over half of Americans, raised in a post-1980s world largely untouched by such rampant inflation, this was a rude awakening. And for the rest, it was a jarring blast from the past.

Yet, the election was shockingly close. A mere 173,000 votes across four key states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia – could have flipped the script, installing Kamala Harris in the Oval Office. While exceeding the narrow margins of 2016 and 2020, it's a sliver in a pool of nearly 155 million votes, highlighting the precarious nature of victory.

The Biden Conundrum: A 107-Day Candidacy

Joe Biden's insistence on a second term will undoubtedly fuel countless post-mortem analyses. Whatever the internal motivations, the decision carried significant risk. Could a different Democratic candidate have secured a win? We'll never know for sure.

David Plouffe, Harris advisor, suggested on Pod Save America that a standard primary process, solidifying the nominee by March or April, would have allowed for crucial campaign building. Building a candidate's image, dissecting Trump's first term, and highlighting the dangers of a second, all while boosting key policy discussions like housing and tax cuts, would have dramatically altered the landscape. Even a truncated primary process, perhaps spurred by a Biden withdrawal after the ill-fated June 27th debate, could have provided a platform for Harris to refine her campaign or for a stronger alternative to emerge.

Beyond Rationalization: Confronting the Democratic Deficit

While these arguments hold water, they offer little solace in defeat. Losing demands introspection, not rationalization. Three critical issues plague the Democratic party.

First, the economic anxieties of working-class voters across all demographics are undeniable. Second, certain cultural battles, championed by single-issue interest groups (LGBTQ+ rights, immigrant rights, etc.), have created vulnerabilities for Democratic candidates within the nominating process. Third, the Democratic “brand” is tarnished across wide swathes of the country. This is largely a media problem, and one Democrats and their donors must confront.

It's time to acknowledge the undeniable influence of non-traditional media. As I wrote in a widely read post-election piece, figures like Joe Rogan wield far greater sway than the New York Times editorial page – perhaps a thousand times greater. This reality demands a fundamental shift in Democratic strategy.