Germany's Election Under Siege: A Deep Dive into Russian Disinformation Campaigns

A Familiar Foe Returns: Russia's Renewed Interference in German Elections

Russia's attempts to manipulate elections through disinformation are, unfortunately, a recurring theme. From the EU and US elections last year to Germany's own federal elections in 2021, the Kremlin's shadow looms large over democratic processes. Now, with Germany heading to the polls on February 23rd, a new wave of disinformation campaigns has emerged, threatening to undermine the integrity of the electoral process.

Targeting the Center: Discrediting Mainstream Parties

This time, the disinformation crosshairs are firmly fixed on centrist parties. Lea Früchwirth from the Center for Monitoring, Analysis and Strategy (CeMAS) reveals that "most fake news [is] directed against the Greens, the CDU (Christian Democrats) and the SPD (Social Democrats), as well as their top candidates." Interestingly, while mentions of the far-right AfD (Alternative for Germany) are scarce, they carry a consistently positive tone.

Fake News Attacks: Merz and Habeck in the Spotlight

High-profile candidates have become prime targets. A video alleging a mental breakdown and suicide attempt by CDU candidate Friedrich Merz circulated widely on X (formerly Twitter), garnering millions of views. The "evidence" presented? A fabricated statement by a non-existent psychiatrist and a forged medical form. This disinformation cleverly links Merz's supposed instability to his support for supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine, a contentious issue in Germany.

Similarly, Green Party leaders Robert Habeck and Claudia Roth fell victim to a fabricated corruption scandal involving paintings from the Prussian Cultural Heritage Foundation. These accusations, disseminated through websites masquerading as legitimate news platforms, were swiftly debunked by the foundation itself.

Unmasking the Operations: Storm-1516, Doppelgänger, and Matryoshka

These disinformation campaigns share a common thread: forged documents, fake witness statements, and dissemination through pseudo-news websites. These tactics, according to online researchers from the gnida project, are hallmarks of the Russian disinformation operation known as Storm-1516. Working alongside Correctiv and NewsGuard, gnida uncovered a network of German-language websites initially filled with AI-generated pro-Russian content, then used to spread fabricated stories amplified by social media influencers.

The Doppelgänger operation echoes a similar strategy. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has focused on discrediting Western foreign policy, particularly support for Ukraine, as highlighted by the German foreign ministry. Even the US government has imposed sanctions on Doppelgänger stakeholders after its interference in the 2022 US election campaign. This operation initially gained notoriety by mimicking established media outlets like the BBC and DW.

Adding another layer of complexity, the Matryoshka operation utilizes bot armies to flood journalists with disinformation, overwhelming fact-checkers and further disseminating false narratives. As reported by the independent Russian media outlet Agentstvo, Matryoshka bots were responsible for spreading at least 15 fake videos purporting to be from DW and Bild, painting a grim picture of Germany grappling with terrorism, rising crime, and voter anxieties.

Boosting the Far-Right: Support for AfD and BSW?

Leonie Pfaller from NewsGuard points to a conspicuous trend: frequent positive coverage of the far-right AfD and its top candidate, Alice Weidel. Research even suggests that the Doppelganger operation aimed to boost the AfD's vote share to at least 20%, aligning with the party's current polling numbers. While a direct link remains unproven, the AfD's pro-Moscow stance and calls to lift sanctions against Russia raise suspicions.

Similarly, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), with its narrative of the war in Ukraine as a preventable "proxy war," has also benefited from Russian propaganda, according to Früchwirth from CeMAS.

Beyond Disinformation: A Deeper Threat

Felix Kartte from Stiftung Mercator emphasizes that the immediate danger of election interference pales in comparison to Russia's long-term strategic goal of influencing public discourse. "The topics, the narratives that the Kremlin has wanted to control for years have become very dominant in the German public debate too," he warns. These narratives, including accusations of government corruption and suppression of free speech, find disturbing resonance with far-right movements across Europe.

Combating the Threat: Awareness and Action

While the German Interior Ministry acknowledges that foreign disinformation campaigns are often beyond the reach of criminal law, a dedicated interdepartmental working group is actively monitoring these threats. The focus lies in raising public awareness and promoting media literacy. Germany is also collaborating with other nations and social media platforms to counter Russian disinformation efforts.

Ultimately, as Kartte argues, simply countering disinformation with facts is insufficient. Politicians must address the underlying emotional needs of society and, crucially, "make better policy." This multifaceted approach is vital to safeguarding democratic processes against the insidious threat of foreign interference.