Middle East in Turmoil: From Broken Ceasefires to Nuclear Negotiations

The Collapse of the Gaza Ceasefire

For weeks, the world watched Ukraine. Meanwhile, a fragile peace in Gaza, brokered in part by Donald Trump, crumbled. Negotiations with Hamas disintegrated, leading Israel to sever humanitarian aid, cut power, and unleash devastating airstrikes that claimed hundreds of lives.

Scott Lucas, a Middle East expert at University College Dublin, confirmed, "This is the end of the two-month ceasefire... The six-week phase one officially ended on March 1..."

This abrupt end underscores the deep-seated conflict and the seemingly insurmountable obstacles to a lasting peace.

Israel's Uncertain Future in Gaza

What does the future hold for Gaza? Currently, there seems to be no long-term Israeli plan, only short-term political maneuvering. Prime Minister Netanyahu faces pressure from hard-right factions and the weight of an ongoing bribery trial. The return of hostages remains a key concern, further complicating an already volatile situation.

While some envision a depopulated Gaza under Israeli control, the immediate reality is one of escalating violence and an uncertain future.

Trump's Shifting Stance

Donald Trump, who once touted himself as a peacemaker in the region, readily accepted credit for the initial ceasefire. However, with the collapse of phase two, he now seems content to place blame on Hamas. His focus has shifted elsewhere, leaving the future of Gaza in a precarious balance.

Escalating Tensions with Iran

Adding fuel to the fire, the US responded to attacks on shipping in the Red Sea with airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. This action is widely seen as a message to Iran, as Trump continues to pressure the Iranian government towards a new nuclear deal, a replacement for the 2013 agreement he rejected.

Trump's strategy seems to oscillate between "peacemaker" and "tough guy," potentially influenced by domestic concerns and the desire to project strength.

Iran's Muted Response

Despite the US airstrikes, Iran's response has been relatively subdued. The nation grapples with a complex web of economic woes, social unrest, and regional challenges. A plummeting currency, soaring inflation, and rising unemployment paint a bleak picture of the country's internal struggles.

Furthermore, the "Woman, life, freedom" protests have placed the regime in a difficult position, caught between addressing public discontent and maintaining its grip on power. This internal turmoil likely limits Iran's capacity for a strong external reaction.

The Future of a Nuclear Deal

Some of Trump's advisors believe that military pressure will force Iran back to the negotiating table. However, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has explicitly rejected negotiations under duress. He stated, "When we know they won't honour it, what's the point of negotiating? Therefore, the invitation to negotiate … is a deception of public opinion.”

The potential for a new nuclear deal remains uncertain. While Iran may be weakened, its leadership appears unwilling to bend to pressure tactics. The path forward remains fraught with obstacles and the prospect of further escalation.